The fact is, ice cannot break up and disappear until it goes through the process of “getting rotten.” That actually requires that the smooth, clear, and “hard as steel” aspects of the ice we find in early February, is impacted by rain, freeze and thaw days and night, and even gets slushy on the surface during the warmer days.
The combination of wind, sun, and even warm rains all take their toll on ice in making it rotten and ready for break up and ice out. However, one other factor comes into play – refreeze. Ideally we need temperatures above freezing both during the day AND at night.
As for official ice out? I am thinking that this will occur about May 10-15 near Armstrong, but later up at the Albany. For now we’re on the look out for rotten ice – yes we want it, and we want it now!
I’ll tell you more in my podcast – click here to listen in.