The Wilderness North forecast last week contained a four letter word we have not seen for quite a while . . . SNOW! Sure enough, last Saturday featured some snow flurries in the Armstrong area. Temperatures were slightly above the melting point so nothing actually stayed on the ground – but it was a reality check that fall is here and the transition from summer to winter has begun.

That being said, what a difference a week makes. This weekend, expect mainly sunny conditions with afternoon temperatures reaching 19 or 20º C (high 60º F); well above seasonal for this time of the year. Clear and very dry air will result in below average early morning temperatures hovering around the freezing point. The following days will feature above average temperatures with mainly cloudy skies and occasional showers – yes, rain showers, not the snow variety.

An El Niño this winter?
Above-average sea surface temperatures continue across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This is one of the conditions for a process that flip usual atmospheric circulation and seasonal conditions around the world, from a rainy season to drought and vice versa. In central North America a moderate or strong El Niño usually means a mild winter and less snowfall. El Niño is a complex process that involves changes in the trade winds, atmospheric pressure and warmer than usual heat content in the upper 1000 ft/300 m of the ocean. The change from neutral to El Niño generally happens abruptly but for now we will have to wait for October to see if conditions continue.

Graham Saunders